Possibly the warmest May on record?

I have read reports that this month will end up being the warmest May on record thanks to a heat wave in the last 10 days of the month. Going by the latest provisional values of the Central England Temperature [CET] series, so far this month (up until the 20th) that looks a total impossibility. A quick bit of calculation to see just how hot the last 11 days of the month would have to be to beat May 1833 reveals that the daily mean would have to exceed 20.1°C for every remaining day of the month. The people who are making these predictions obviously didn’t realise just how exceptionally warm May 1833 was, +4.64°C above the long-term average. Currently May 2016 is tracking just inside the top twenty warmest at #19, with a mean anomaly of +1.97°C, which in itself is very high. Even if the short cold spell between the 14-16th hadn’t occurred it still wouldn’t have been anywhere close to beating 1833.

Daily Central England Temperature Warmest start to a May 1772 - 2016

Daily Central England Temperature Warmest start to a May 1772 – 2016

Remember you can keep an eye on the latest CET values in these special static pages dedicated to them.

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About xmetman

I am an exmetman who is passionate about all things to do with weather and climate. I have no axe to grind, and am continually upsetting people on both sides of the global warming debate with the articles that I publish, hell, I'm even banned from commenting on the Met Office's own blog! What I do fight for is the freeing up of climate, observational and forecast data collected and created on our behalf by the Meteorological Office.
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3 Responses to Possibly the warmest May on record?

  1. Richard Mallett says:

    Distinctly chilly here in South Beds.

    Like

  2. admin says:

    You’re falling into the trap of remembering last week’s 3 day cold snap and forgetting about the 9 day warm spell that immediately preceded it – which in itself included two new highest maximums, and two nights highest minimums.

    Like

  3. Richard Mallett says:

    Yes of course – we will have to see what the next ten days bring. That will also tell us what sort of spring we had this year.

    April was cooler at 7.50 C than the average since 1659 of 7.94 C or the average since 1772 of 8.09 C.

    March was warmer at 5.90 C than the average since 1659 of 5.33 C or the average since 1772 of 5.54 C.

    The meteoblue forecast for Dunstable shows highs of 17 C from May 27th. to June 4th. for what that’s worth.

    BTW I was still not asked if I wanted to be notified of replies.

    Like

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