Start of June similar to the barbecue summer of 2009

Barbecue Summer with Darren Bett

I was just looking at the latest Lamb Weather Types [LWT] from the Climate Research Unit [CRU] and ran a comparison on the beginning of June in previous years. Interestingly on the 14 days between the 30th of May and 12th of June, 2009 tops the list of best analogs to 2016, with a match of 88.7% when you compare the indices from the objective LWT data for both years. I will stress at this point that my method is just a simple comparison using these indices, and drawing any conclusion on what the rest of the summer might bring from a short 14 day analog would be very foolish. Having said that so few people read my ramblings, and since I’m paying for the privilege of hosting the xmetman blog, I thought I would do it anyway, so if you’re reading this remember you heard it here first! Of course if you’re reading this in the future and it turned out that 2016 was a great summer, just put it down to those pesky analogs.

Lamb Weather Type Analog for the Last 14 days [30 May - 12 Jun] Match Average Indices method

Lamb Weather Type Analog for the Last 14 days [30 May – 12 Jun] Match Average Indices method

If you scan down the closest matches in the list many of them from recent years. Here’s a look at the daily charts for 2009 and 2016 just to see how alike they are.

30 May - 12 June 2009 (courtesy of The Met Office)

30 May – 12 June 2009 (courtesy of The Met Office)

30 May - 12 Jun 2016 (courtesy of The Met Office)

30 May – 12 Jun 2016 (courtesy of The Met Office)

Both were initially anticyclonic, with high pressure to the north of the country, before pressure fell and low pressure systems spread in from the southwest. This is how the summer of 2009 turned out as far as Central England Temperatures [CET] were concerned, a warm spell at the end of June and start of July, the rest of July was cool and August was only just slightly above average.

Daily CET Summer [JJA] 2009

Daily CET Summer [JJA] 2009

And below is a chart of how the England Wales daily precipitation looked through the summer of 2016. July did turn out a very cool and wet month indeed. Looking back in hindsight, the rainfall accumulations were only 120% of average for the whole summer, but I suppose that you have to set that against what a disappointment it was after all the euphoric hype and raised expectations that the seasonal forecast by the Met Office received back in the April.

HadUKP England & Wales 1 June 2009 - 31 August 2009

HadUKP England & Wales 1 June 2009 – 31 August 2009 (courtesy of the Met Office)

I don’t recall if the north Atlantic sea surface temperatures were as cool as they are this year so I can’t say if there was a similarity there. At the start of summer 2009 we had also just exited from a minor La Niña event and just entering an El Niño, so completely the reverse of what’s happening at the moment in summer 2016. We will just have to see what the next couple of months bring and hope for the best.

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About xmetman

I am an exmetman who is passionate about all things to do with weather and climate. I have no axe to grind, and am continually upsetting people on both sides of the global warming debate with the articles that I publish, hell, I'm even banned from commenting on the Met Office's own blog! What I do fight for is the freeing up of climate, observational and forecast data collected and created on our behalf by the Meteorological Office.
This entry was posted in Central England Temperatures, LWT, Met Office, UKP and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Start of June similar to the barbecue summer of 2009

  1. Pingback: Very wet in northern areas; warmer and thundery in the south… – xmetman

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