Has 2017 blown its chance of warmest year?

In Central England, 2017 still remains as the second warmest year to date (28th July) since at least 1772. July started so well, and early high CET values pushed 2017 briefly ahead of 2014 (fig 1), but as the CET cooled, 2014 overtook it is now 0.12°C ahead of it, both having now overtaken 2007, which had been warmest for a good part of this year till now. It’s hard to keep anomalies as high as +1.77°C for the rest of the year, and although 2014 did a good job, the running mean did drop back to less than +1.5°C by the end of August. But the way the summer temperatures have crashed over northwest Europe in recent weeks, has made me think that 2017 will find it very difficult to take the crown from 2014 as the warmest year since 1659, unless we see a very mild Autumn, and a December with temperatures as high as those in 2015.

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About xmetman

I am an exmetman who is passionate about all things to do with weather and climate. I have no axe to grind, and am continually upsetting people on both sides of the global warming debate with the articles that I publish, hell, I'm even banned from commenting on the Met Office's own blog! What I do fight for is the freeing up of climate, observational and forecast data collected and created on our behalf by the Meteorological Office.
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